US Tariffs Targeting Chinese Shipping Could Undercut American Farm Exports

A new move by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to curb China’s dominance in global shipbuilding and port logistics could have unintended consequences for American farmers. Announced April 17, the USTR’s proposal under Section 301 would impose steep service fees on Chinese vessels entering U.S. ports – starting October 14, 2025, and rising to as much as $1.5 million per entry by 2028. The proposal also includes potential tariffs of up to 100% on some Chinese-made port equipment. 

S&P Global, in a commodity insights report, said the USTR cited China’s grip on the maritime industry – controlling half of global shipbuilding and 95% of container production – as a threat to U.S. trade security. But agricultural exporters are sounding alarms over potential fallout.

Rising Shipping Costs Could Hurt Farm Exports
Analysts estimate Chinese-operated ships could face port entry fees of up to $1 million, while Chinese-built ships could be charged $1.5 million per visit. Those costs could ripple through the supply chain, driving up shipping prices and undermining the competitiveness of U.S. agricultural exports.

According to the National Grain & Feed Association (NGFA), the new fees could tack on an extra $15–$40 per metric ton to shipping costs for U.S. grain and oilseed exports, roughly 50 cents to $1.25 per bushel. The group warned this could cost the industry an estimated $1.6-$4.2 billion annually and jeopardise a $65 billion agricultural trade surplus.

Impact on Grain, Soybean and Corn Markets
The NGFA, along with the North American Export Grain Association and the National Oilseed Processors Association, submitted comments to the USTR on March 24. They highlighted the far-reaching risks of the proposal, particularly for core U.S. exports like soybeans, corn, and wheat.

According to their estimates:
Wheat production could drop by 33%, driven by a 64% fall in exports, costing farmers $3-$4 billion annually.
Soybean output may shrink by 18%, with a projected 42% drop in exports, leading to a $10 billion revenue loss.
Corn production could dip 3.6%, with exports falling nearly 9%, translating to about $3 billion in lost income.

“Soybean exports could be lost to competitors like Brazil,” NGFA said. Brazil is projected to produce 153 million metric tons of soybeans in 2025, posing a significant threat to U.S. market share.

From April 1 through mid-April 2025, the U.S. exported 45 million metric tons of soybeans – about 50.2% (22.6 million mt) went to China, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea. By contrast, only 1.86% of the U.S.’s 54.8 million mt of corn exports were sent to China.

Commodity analysts expect the U.S. could lose 8.1 million metric tons in soybean exports in the 2025-26 marketing year if a trade dispute escalates.

Ripple Effects Across the Agri Value Chain
The expected decline in exports wouldn’t just affect farmers. The broader agricultural supply chain – from rail and barge transport to processing plants, grain elevators, and port services – would also take a hit. Products like ethanol, soybean oil, soybean meal, corn gluten feed, and distillers’ grains could see reduced demand.

In response, groups like the NGFA and American Farm Bureau are calling on the USTR to create carve-outs for agriculture. They’ve proposed measures like tax credits, grants, or
A blog post by the International Food Policy Research Institute warns that the tariffs could reduce global agricultural trade by 3.3%-4.7% and trim global GDP by 0.3%-0.4%. In the U.S., GDP could fall by up to 1.2% if other countries retaliate. With key agricultural trade flows at risk, industry voices are urging caution. The USTR’s attempt to curb Chinese maritime power may end up leaving U.S. farmers adrift in a reshaped – and more hostile- global market.